Risk and Risk Assessment
Objective: To examine the relationships between the degree of risk posed by a hazard and the probability of the hazard event occuring.
Optional Starter: Life is full of risks. Watch the four videos below and create a table in your book with five columns. The titles are 1. Activity 2. Risks associated 3. Outcome 4.How to reduce the hazard. 5. Danger grade 1 - 10 (10 most dangerous)
How did you rate them?
Point for discussion: Think about the role of the media, film and television, computer games and upbringing and perception in terms of risk and risk assessment. To what extent do games such as Grand Theft Auto, influence people's opinions of risk?
TOK link: Study this article. To what extent can this be attributed to the game, or is it media spin?
Optional Starter: Life is full of risks. Watch the four videos below and create a table in your book with five columns. The titles are 1. Activity 2. Risks associated 3. Outcome 4.How to reduce the hazard. 5. Danger grade 1 - 10 (10 most dangerous)
How did you rate them?
Point for discussion: Think about the role of the media, film and television, computer games and upbringing and perception in terms of risk and risk assessment. To what extent do games such as Grand Theft Auto, influence people's opinions of risk?
TOK link: Study this article. To what extent can this be attributed to the game, or is it media spin?
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Research Task 1 - The Theory
Turn to page 102 in the IB Geography Revision Guide and take notes on the factors affecting risk and risk management.
Turn to page 102 in the IB Geography Revision Guide and take notes on the factors affecting risk and risk management.
Task 2 - Use this grid sheet to record the factors affecting vulnerability associated with your different case studies (your quake, your tropical storm, your drought & AZF France). We will be completing the set with our partners work. Be detailed in your notes please.
Level 6+ Extension: Local Example - France and risk management
Click here to read a recent article about how France is developing its own risk management and mitigation schemes. Print out a copy of this article and highlight the recent progress being made and including the catalyst that started this national process.
Level 6+ Extension: Local Example - France and risk management
Click here to read a recent article about how France is developing its own risk management and mitigation schemes. Print out a copy of this article and highlight the recent progress being made and including the catalyst that started this national process.
***You have to be able to give details of two methods of predicting hazards. We will be using earthquakes and hurricane prediction as the focus for this study. All the work will be completed using the worksheet below (click on the blue tab). Make sure this is downloaded before you go any further***
Earthquake Prediction
Objective: To examine the methods used to make estimates (predictions) of the probability (in space and time) of hazard events occurring and their potential impacts on lives and property.
Earthquake Prediction - The Theory
Introducing the earthquake risk in 2018
Read this article from The Guardian. Highlight the reasons why scientists believe that there may be an increase in earthquake activity in 2018.
Titles for notes:
1. Methods (IT, equipment, observations)
2. Locations in danger of quakes (spatial mapping, overlaying vulnerable areas to maps of settlements, oceans etc)
3. Impact on life and property (planning, response) - Resilient Cities Video beneath
4. Accuracy (in time and space)
Further research
BBC Article September 2011 - here
Can we Predict Earthquakes?
National Geographic April 2006 - here.
Page 3 is particularly informative for part 1 above.
YouTube - How the earth was made - San Andreas fault, USA - here (The first 15 mins is very useful)
BBC News - April 2012 - Predicting the next Japanese earthquake based on sea sediments - here
**BBC News - July 2013 - Using smartphone technology to predict earthquakes - here
Introducing the earthquake risk in 2018
Read this article from The Guardian. Highlight the reasons why scientists believe that there may be an increase in earthquake activity in 2018.
Titles for notes:
1. Methods (IT, equipment, observations)
2. Locations in danger of quakes (spatial mapping, overlaying vulnerable areas to maps of settlements, oceans etc)
3. Impact on life and property (planning, response) - Resilient Cities Video beneath
4. Accuracy (in time and space)
Further research
BBC Article September 2011 - here
Can we Predict Earthquakes?
National Geographic April 2006 - here.
Page 3 is particularly informative for part 1 above.
YouTube - How the earth was made - San Andreas fault, USA - here (The first 15 mins is very useful)
BBC News - April 2012 - Predicting the next Japanese earthquake based on sea sediments - here
**BBC News - July 2013 - Using smartphone technology to predict earthquakes - here
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Earthquake Prediction in Japan
Task 1. You now need to apply the earthquake prediction process to your case study (either Japan or Haiti). Use your worksheet to produce a research based notes page that outlines the level of prediction that was supplied before the event itself and what actions were taken due to the prediction. Use the following structure to help you:
- Had the earthquake been predicted?
- What degree of prediction had been given?
- What actions [if any] had been taken due to the predictions?
Japan Quake
Tropical Storm
Watch the two videos to the right hand side and take notes on the different methods that geographers, scientists and climatologists use to make estimates of the probability of a tropical storm happening and where they will strike. Concentrate on the theory only and we will apply this to your case studies in the next task.
Titles for notes: 1. Methods (IT, equipment, observations) 2. Locations in danger (spatial mapping, overlaying vulnerable areas to maps of settlements, oceans etc) 3. Impact on life and property (planning, response) 4. Accuracy (in time and space) Further research Guardian Online - June 2012 - here As the Atlantic hurricane season begins, the forecasters are all over the map Washington Post - August 2012 - Pt 1 here Pt 2 here Hurricane Prediction: A Not So Exact Science - here |
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Tropical Storm Prediction - New Orleans
Task 3. You now need to apply the hurricane prediction process to both case studies (Hurricane Katrina, USA or Cyclone Haiyan, Philippines). Use your worksheet to produce a research based notes page outlining the level of prediction that was supplied before the event itself and what actions were taken due to the prediction.
Hurricane Katrina - USA 2005
Original Prediction - Watch the YouTube videos below
Hurricane Katrina - USA 2005
Original Prediction - Watch the YouTube videos below
What they said (before) What happened (after)
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